This is the web page for AMS 131 section 1 (summer 2018). The following abbreviations will be used here:

DD = David Draper (Professor; email address draper@ucsc.edu), LB = Laura Baracaldo (TA; email address lbaracal@ucsc.edu), JK = JiaJie Kong (TA; email address jkong7@ucsc.edu), WZ = Wenjie Zhao (TA; email address wzhao24@ucsc.edu), BE = Baskin Engineering and JL = Jack's Lounge (on the ground floor of BE: it's the big open area with whiteboards, on the opposite end of the building from the coffee place) .

The catalog description for AMS 131 is as follows:

Introduction to probability theory and its applications. Combinatorial analysis, axioms of probability and independence, random variables (discrete and continuous), joint probability distributions, properties of expectation, Central Limit Theorem, Law of Large Numbers, Markov chains. Students cannot receive credit for this course and course 203 and Computer Engineering 107. Prerequisite(s): course 11B or Economics 11B or Mathematics 11B or 19B or 20B. (General Education Code(s): Q, SR - Statistical Reasoning)

  • (25 Jun 2018) Announcements will be posted in this section. The first Attachment section below will contain scanned PDF copies of the document camera lecture notes and extra lecture notes, as well as case studies and R and Maple code; the second Attachment section will contain secure documents, available only by logging into the web page.
  • (27 Jun 2018) Office hours this term will be as follows: Mon 11.30am-12.30pm (DD; Jack's Lounge [JL]), Tue 11.30am-12.30pm (JK; BE 119), Tue 4-5pm (WZ; BE 312C/D); Wed 11.30am-12.30pm (LB; BE 119), Thu 10-11am (DD; JL), Thu 11.30am-12.30pm (JK; BE 119), Thu 4-5pm (WZ; BE 312 C/D), Fri 11.30am-12.30pm (LB; BE 119).
  • (29 Jun 2018) You can get free tutoring for this course through Learning Support Services (LSS): our tutor is Noa Mills; session times are Tue 11am-noon, Wed 11.45am-12.45pm and Fri noon-1pm; you can sign up through Slug Success at sserc.ucsc.edu/slug-success (all tutoring sessions are at the ARCenter). 

 

AttachmentSize
PDF icon Notes (lecture: 25 Jun 2018) (review of basic probability rules)314.35 KB
PDF icon Extra notes (25 Jun 2018) (experiments, events, sample spaces, set theory)481.42 KB
PDF icon Case study: Tay-Sachs disease699.51 KB
PDF icon Notes (discussion section 1, 26 Jun 2018) (solving problems from DS chapter 1)113.95 KB
PDF icon Quiz 1 in PDF format (target due date at canvas: by 11.59pm on Fri 29 Jun 2018)37.08 KB
Plain text icon Quiz 1 in LaTeX format2.12 KB
PDF icon Notes (lecture: 27 Jun 2018) (experimental design)169.72 KB
PDF icon Extra notes (27 Jun 2018) (set theory, partitions, Kolmogorov axioms, permutations and combinations)2.29 MB
PDF icon Case studies: (1) Dr. Schram and (2) Fisher's constitutional hypothesis126.93 KB
PDF icon Take-Home Test 1 in PDF format (target due date at canvas: by 11.59pm on Fri 6 Jul 2018)164.9 KB
Plain text icon Take-Home Test 1 in LaTeX format24.92 KB
PDF icon Notes (discussion section 2, 28 Jun 2018) (a probability model for sums)80.02 KB
PDF icon Case study: roulette64.25 KB
Plain text icon R code for simulating roulette1.44 KB
PDF icon Quiz 2 in PDF format (target due date at canvas: by 11.59pm on Mon 2 Jul 2018)65.29 KB
Plain text icon Quiz 2 in LaTeX format1.78 KB
PDF icon Notes (lecture: 29 Jun 2018) (using partitions, Bayes's Theorem for true/false propositions)80.39 KB
PDF icon Extra notes (29 Jun 2018) (permutations and combinations, conditional probability, Bayes's Theorem)1.52 MB
Plain text icon R code to solve the birthday problem7.14 KB
Plain text icon R code to simulate the matching problem2.09 KB
PDF icon Case studies: Monte Hall and Cromwell's Rule178.12 KB
PDF icon Notes (lecture: 2 Jul 2018) (Bayesian updating with 3 different methods; random variables)156.34 KB
PDF icon Extra notes (2 Jul 2018) (Bayes's Theorem; Law of Total Probability; Bernoulli, binomial random variables)486.76 KB
PDF icon Case study: ELISA and HIV108.64 KB
PDF icon Notes (discussion section 3, 3 Jul 2018) (Bayes's Theorem, Simpson's paradox)338.19 KB
PDF icon Quiz 3 in PDF format (target due date at canvas: by 11.59pm on Fri 6 Jul 2018)58.58 KB
Plain text icon Quiz 3 in LaTeX format 3.1 KB
PDF icon Case study: death penalty and ethnicity54.99 KB
Plain text icon R code exploring the Binomial and Poisson distributions8.43 KB
PDF icon Notes (discussion section 4, 5 Jul 2018) (Cromwell's Rule: exploration of binomial family of distributions in R)133.76 KB
PDF icon Quiz 4 in PDF format (target due date at canvas: by 11.59pm on Sun 8 Jul 2018)91.77 KB
Plain text icon Quiz 4 in LaTeX format3.77 KB
PDF icon Notes (lecture, 6 Jul 2018) (probability density functions, cumulative distribution functions, Exponential distribution)134.6 KB
PDF icon Extra notes (6 Jul 2018, part 1) (probability mass function (pmf); continuous RVs; probability density function)1.5 MB
PDF icon Extra notes (6 Jul 2018, part 2) (cumulative distribution function (CDF); quantiles; Exponential distribution)1.68 MB
PDF icon Notes (lecture, 9 Jul 2018) (joint, marginal and conditional distributions with two random variables)77.49 KB
PDF icon Extra notes (9 Jul 2018) (independence in a bivariate distribution; conditional distributions)2.2 MB
PDF icon Notes (discussion section 5, 10 jul 2018) (exploring Poisson distribution; joint, marginal, conditional densities)131.7 KB
PDF icon Quiz 5 in PDF format (target due date at canvas: by 11.59pm on Fri 13 Jul 2018)78.67 KB
Plain text icon Quiz 5 in LaTeX format1.84 KB
PDF icon Take-Home Test 2 in PDF format (target due date at canvas: by 11.59pm on Wed 18 Jul 2018)172.33 KB
Plain text icon Take-Home Test 2 in LaTeX format17.4 KB
PDF icon Quiz 6 in PDF format (target due date at canvas: by 11.59pm on Mon 16 Jul 2018)85.37 KB
Plain text icon Quiz 6 in LaTeX format2.09 KB
PDF icon Notes (lecture, 11 Jul 2018) (crucial role of conditional independence; functions of discrete RVs)83.75 KB
PDF icon Extra notes (11 Jul 2018) (transformations of univariate and multivariate RVs; order statistics)2.6 MB
PDF icon Notes (discussion section 6, 12 jul 2018) (probability integral transform, application to simulation of draws from a PDF)139.29 KB
Plain text icon R code to illustrate the probability integral transform653 bytes
PDF icon Notes (lecture, 13 Jul 2018) (transformations of random variables)53.44 KB
PDF icon Quiz 7 in PDF format (target due date at canvas: by 11.59pm on Fri 20 Jul 2018)63.16 KB
Plain text icon Quiz 7 in LaTeX format2.03 KB
PDF icon Notes (lecture, 16 Jul 2018) (measures of center [mean, median, mode] and spread [variance, standard deviation])93.01 KB
PDF icon Extra notes (16 Jul 2018) (Expectation, variance, standard deviation; median, mode)803.49 KB
PDF icon Notes (discussion section/lecture, 17 Jul 2018) (Numerical measure of skewness)48.99 KB
PDF icon Extra notes (17 Jul 2018) (Inter-quartile range [spread measure]; (central) moments; moment generating function)48.99 KB
PDF icon Notes (lecture, 18 Jul 2018) (correlation)112.24 KB
PDF icon Extra notes (18 Jul 2018) (prediction; covariance and correlation; conditional expectation)795.4 KB
PDF icon Notes (discussion section/lecture, 19 Jul 2018) (utility)8.89 KB
PDF icon Extra notes (19 Jul 2018) (utility, Bayesian decision theory, distributions [Bernoulli, Binomial, Hypergeometric, Poisson])554.09 KB
PDF icon Corrected Quiz 8 in PDF format (due date at canvas: by 11.59pm on Mon 23 Jul 2018)64.61 KB
Plain text icon Corrected Quiz 8 in LaTeX format2.13 KB
PDF icon Take-Home Test 3 in PDF format (due date at canvas: by 11.59pm on Sun 29 Jul 2018)197.82 KB
Plain text icon Take-Home Test 3 in LaTeX format21.73 KB
PDF icon Figure 1 in Take-Home Test 3, for use with the LaTeX file11.7 KB
PDF icon Notes (lecture, 20 Jul 2018) (Normal distribution, Empirical Rule, Square Root Law)122.32 KB
PDF icon Extra notes (20 Jul 2018) (Distributions: Poisson, Negative Binomial, Geometric, Normal; Empirical Rule)647.32 KB
Plain text icon R code for Bayesian analysis of the Castaneda v. Partida case study2.56 KB
PDF icon Notes (lecture, 23 Jul 2018) (probability versus inference; Castaneda v. Partida; Bivariate Normal distribution)43.09 KB
PDF icon Extra notes, part 1 (23 Jul 2018) (Case study: options pricing, part 1)164.36 KB
PDF icon Extra notes, part 2 (23 Jul 2018) (distributions [Lognormal, Gamma, Beta, Multinomial], inequalities [Markov, Chebyshev])1.11 MB
PDF icon Case study: the London Underground148.79 KB
Plain text icon R code for the London Underground case study4.27 KB
PDF icon Extra notes (24 Jul 2018) (Weak Law of Large Numbers, Central Limit Theorem)197.9 KB
PDF icon Notes (discussion section, 24 Jul 2018) (London Underground case study)92.38 KB
PDF icon Notes (lecture, 25 Jul 2018) (Skewness and kurtosis, stochastic processes)38.33 KB
PDF icon Extra notes (25 Jul 2018) (Delta method, continuity correction, Markov chains)750.96 KB
Plain text icon R code for simulating roulette (part 2)7.09 KB
Plain text icon R code for exploring Markov chains11.36 KB
PDF icon Quiz 10 in PDF format (extra credit) (due date at canvas: by 11.59pm on Sun 29 Jul 2018)79.32 KB
Plain text icon Quiz 10 in LaTeX format3.9 KB
PDF icon CORRECTED Quiz 9 in PDF format (due at canvas by 11.59pm on Sat 28 Jul 2018)106.86 KB
Plain text icon CORRECTED Quiz 9 in LaTeX format4.54 KB
PDF icon Notes (lecture, 27 Jul 2018) (random walk, meaning of eigenvectors and eigenvalues, confidence intervals)137.27 KB
PDF icon Extra notes (27 Jul 2018) (Markov chains, random walk, equilibrium distribution, eigen-analysis of transition matrix)788.35 KB