AMS 131 (Summer Session 1, 2018) | AMS131, Summer 18, Section 01

This is the web page for AMS 131 section 1 (summer 2018). The following abbreviations will be used here:

DD = David Draper (Professor; email address draper@ucsc.edu), LB = Laura Baracaldo (TA; email address lbaracal@ucsc.edu), JK = JiaJie Kong (TA; email address jkong7@ucsc.edu), WZ = Wenjie Zhao (TA; email address wzhao24@ucsc.edu), BE = Baskin Engineering and JL = Jack's Lounge (on the ground floor of BE: it's the big open area with whiteboards, on the opposite end of the building from the coffee place) .

The catalog description for AMS 131 is as follows:

Introduction to probability theory and its applications. Combinatorial analysis, axioms of probability and independence, random variables (discrete and continuous), joint probability distributions, properties of expectation, Central Limit Theorem, Law of Large Numbers, Markov chains. Students cannot receive credit for this course and course 203 and Computer Engineering 107. Prerequisite(s): course 11B or Economics 11B or Mathematics 11B or 19B or 20B. (General Education Code(s): Q, SR - Statistical Reasoning)

(25 Jun 2018) Announcements will be posted in this section. The first Attachment section below will contain scanned PDF copies of the document camera lecture notes and extra lecture notes, as well as case studies and R and Maple code; the second Attachment section will contain secure documents, available only by logging into the web page.
(27 Jun 2018) Office hours this term will be as follows: Mon 11.30am-12.30pm (DD; Jack's Lounge [JL]), Tue 11.30am-12.30pm (JK; BE 119), Tue 4-5pm (WZ; BE 312C/D); Wed 11.30am-12.30pm (LB; BE 119), Thu 10-11am (DD; JL), Thu 11.30am-12.30pm (JK; BE 119), Thu 4-5pm (WZ; BE 312 C/D), Fri 11.30am-12.30pm (LB; BE 119).
(29 Jun 2018) You can get free tutoring for this course through Learning Support Services (LSS): our tutor is Noa Mills; session times are Tue 11am-noon, Wed 11.45am-12.45pm and Fri noon-1pm; you can sign up through Slug Success at sserc.ucsc.edu/slug-success (all tutoring sessions are at the ARCenter).

Attachment	Size
Notes (lecture: 25 Jun 2018) (review of basic probability rules)	314.35 KB
Extra notes (25 Jun 2018) (experiments, events, sample spaces, set theory)	481.42 KB
Case study: Tay-Sachs disease	699.51 KB
Notes (discussion section 1, 26 Jun 2018) (solving problems from DS chapter 1)	113.95 KB
Quiz 1 in PDF format (target due date at canvas: by 11.59pm on Fri 29 Jun 2018)	37.08 KB
Quiz 1 in LaTeX format	2.12 KB
Notes (lecture: 27 Jun 2018) (experimental design)	169.72 KB
Extra notes (27 Jun 2018) (set theory, partitions, Kolmogorov axioms, permutations and combinations)	2.29 MB
Case studies: (1) Dr. Schram and (2) Fisher's constitutional hypothesis	126.93 KB
Take-Home Test 1 in PDF format (target due date at canvas: by 11.59pm on Fri 6 Jul 2018)	164.9 KB
Take-Home Test 1 in LaTeX format	24.92 KB
Notes (discussion section 2, 28 Jun 2018) (a probability model for sums)	80.02 KB
Case study: roulette	64.25 KB
R code for simulating roulette	1.44 KB
Quiz 2 in PDF format (target due date at canvas: by 11.59pm on Mon 2 Jul 2018)	65.29 KB
Quiz 2 in LaTeX format	1.78 KB
Notes (lecture: 29 Jun 2018) (using partitions, Bayes's Theorem for true/false propositions)	80.39 KB
Extra notes (29 Jun 2018) (permutations and combinations, conditional probability, Bayes's Theorem)	1.52 MB
R code to solve the birthday problem	7.14 KB
R code to simulate the matching problem	2.09 KB
Case studies: Monte Hall and Cromwell's Rule	178.12 KB
Notes (lecture: 2 Jul 2018) (Bayesian updating with 3 different methods; random variables)	156.34 KB
Extra notes (2 Jul 2018) (Bayes's Theorem; Law of Total Probability; Bernoulli, binomial random variables)	486.76 KB
Case study: ELISA and HIV	108.64 KB
Notes (discussion section 3, 3 Jul 2018) (Bayes's Theorem, Simpson's paradox)	338.19 KB
Quiz 3 in PDF format (target due date at canvas: by 11.59pm on Fri 6 Jul 2018)	58.58 KB
Quiz 3 in LaTeX format	3.1 KB
Case study: death penalty and ethnicity	54.99 KB
R code exploring the Binomial and Poisson distributions	8.43 KB
Notes (discussion section 4, 5 Jul 2018) (Cromwell's Rule: exploration of binomial family of distributions in R)	133.76 KB
Quiz 4 in PDF format (target due date at canvas: by 11.59pm on Sun 8 Jul 2018)	91.77 KB
Quiz 4 in LaTeX format	3.77 KB
Notes (lecture, 6 Jul 2018) (probability density functions, cumulative distribution functions, Exponential distribution)	134.6 KB
Extra notes (6 Jul 2018, part 1) (probability mass function (pmf); continuous RVs; probability density function)	1.5 MB
Extra notes (6 Jul 2018, part 2) (cumulative distribution function (CDF); quantiles; Exponential distribution)	1.68 MB
Notes (lecture, 9 Jul 2018) (joint, marginal and conditional distributions with two random variables)	77.49 KB
Extra notes (9 Jul 2018) (independence in a bivariate distribution; conditional distributions)	2.2 MB
Notes (discussion section 5, 10 jul 2018) (exploring Poisson distribution; joint, marginal, conditional densities)	131.7 KB
Quiz 5 in PDF format (target due date at canvas: by 11.59pm on Fri 13 Jul 2018)	78.67 KB
Quiz 5 in LaTeX format	1.84 KB
Take-Home Test 2 in PDF format (target due date at canvas: by 11.59pm on Wed 18 Jul 2018)	172.33 KB
Take-Home Test 2 in LaTeX format	17.4 KB
Quiz 6 in PDF format (target due date at canvas: by 11.59pm on Mon 16 Jul 2018)	85.37 KB
Quiz 6 in LaTeX format	2.09 KB
Notes (lecture, 11 Jul 2018) (crucial role of conditional independence; functions of discrete RVs)	83.75 KB
Extra notes (11 Jul 2018) (transformations of univariate and multivariate RVs; order statistics)	2.6 MB
Notes (discussion section 6, 12 jul 2018) (probability integral transform, application to simulation of draws from a PDF)	139.29 KB
R code to illustrate the probability integral transform	653 bytes
Notes (lecture, 13 Jul 2018) (transformations of random variables)	53.44 KB
Quiz 7 in PDF format (target due date at canvas: by 11.59pm on Fri 20 Jul 2018)	63.16 KB
Quiz 7 in LaTeX format	2.03 KB
Notes (lecture, 16 Jul 2018) (measures of center [mean, median, mode] and spread [variance, standard deviation])	93.01 KB
Extra notes (16 Jul 2018) (Expectation, variance, standard deviation; median, mode)	803.49 KB
Notes (discussion section/lecture, 17 Jul 2018) (Numerical measure of skewness)	48.99 KB
Extra notes (17 Jul 2018) (Inter-quartile range [spread measure]; (central) moments; moment generating function)	48.99 KB
Notes (lecture, 18 Jul 2018) (correlation)	112.24 KB
Extra notes (18 Jul 2018) (prediction; covariance and correlation; conditional expectation)	795.4 KB
Notes (discussion section/lecture, 19 Jul 2018) (utility)	8.89 KB
Extra notes (19 Jul 2018) (utility, Bayesian decision theory, distributions [Bernoulli, Binomial, Hypergeometric, Poisson])	554.09 KB
Corrected Quiz 8 in PDF format (due date at canvas: by 11.59pm on Mon 23 Jul 2018)	64.61 KB
Corrected Quiz 8 in LaTeX format	2.13 KB
Take-Home Test 3 in PDF format (due date at canvas: by 11.59pm on Sun 29 Jul 2018)	197.82 KB
Take-Home Test 3 in LaTeX format	21.73 KB
Figure 1 in Take-Home Test 3, for use with the LaTeX file	11.7 KB
Notes (lecture, 20 Jul 2018) (Normal distribution, Empirical Rule, Square Root Law)	122.32 KB
Extra notes (20 Jul 2018) (Distributions: Poisson, Negative Binomial, Geometric, Normal; Empirical Rule)	647.32 KB
R code for Bayesian analysis of the Castaneda v. Partida case study	2.56 KB
Notes (lecture, 23 Jul 2018) (probability versus inference; Castaneda v. Partida; Bivariate Normal distribution)	43.09 KB
Extra notes, part 1 (23 Jul 2018) (Case study: options pricing, part 1)	164.36 KB
Extra notes, part 2 (23 Jul 2018) (distributions [Lognormal, Gamma, Beta, Multinomial], inequalities [Markov, Chebyshev])	1.11 MB
Case study: the London Underground	148.79 KB
R code for the London Underground case study	4.27 KB
Extra notes (24 Jul 2018) (Weak Law of Large Numbers, Central Limit Theorem)	197.9 KB
Notes (discussion section, 24 Jul 2018) (London Underground case study)	92.38 KB
Notes (lecture, 25 Jul 2018) (Skewness and kurtosis, stochastic processes)	38.33 KB
Extra notes (25 Jul 2018) (Delta method, continuity correction, Markov chains)	750.96 KB
R code for simulating roulette (part 2)	7.09 KB
R code for exploring Markov chains	11.36 KB
Quiz 10 in PDF format (extra credit) (due date at canvas: by 11.59pm on Sun 29 Jul 2018)	79.32 KB
Quiz 10 in LaTeX format	3.9 KB
CORRECTED Quiz 9 in PDF format (due at canvas by 11.59pm on Sat 28 Jul 2018)	106.86 KB
CORRECTED Quiz 9 in LaTeX format	4.54 KB
Notes (lecture, 27 Jul 2018) (random walk, meaning of eigenvectors and eigenvalues, confidence intervals)	137.27 KB
Extra notes (27 Jul 2018) (Markov chains, random walk, equilibrium distribution, eigen-analysis of transition matrix)	788.35 KB